UKRAINE & RUSSIA

AIM

The aim of this research paper is to understand the impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The paper and the author discuss the role of US foreign policy in this case and how the situation has affected Europe and the geopolitics of the nations.

HYPOTHESIS

The intense and dangerous turmoil provoked by the breakdown in Russo-Ukrainian relations has escalated into a crisis that now afflicts both European and global affairs. US and NATO have proven to be one of the main instigators of a war that could have been avoided.

STATEMENT OF PURPOSE

The Russo-Ukrainian war commenced on 24th February 2022 under the term- “special military operation” Ukraine was invaded by Russia as the Russian President felt the current possible circumstances were a breach to his nation and had his eyes set on Ukraine for a while now. This war is significant and can change the course of the future of the world in terms of political and economical power dynamics. In only a few months this war has threatened the peace we’ve worked hard to maintain since WWII.
The US and the NATO leaders have made an undeniable mistake which has taken them a step further towards their path of downfall as now the power has started its slow shift towards Asia. Their expansionist policy could very well backfire as Russia has been able to resiliently withstand the sanctions that have been imposed on them. In Fact the dollar has taken a hit but Rouble has become stable again and is doing well.
The Cloud of Deglobalization Looms Large as the United States has shown prominent isolationist and protectionist characteristics in recent years in its foreign political and economic policies. These U.S. policy adjustments have weakened the process of globalisation and induced policy countermeasures among different camps and interest groups. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has exacerbated the existing stresses and further display the vulnerability of national economies to unexpected economic turbulence, weakening the consensus on globalisation.
President Putin has made more than one reference to Russia’s nuclear weapons. Russia is known to possess an estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022, the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. If the war escalates and the west continues to interfere, Putin has made the possibility of nuclear warfare an option, which in itself is something to fear. This war could mean stockpiling of nuclear warfare, usage of nukes, and possible making of biological warfare (transparently) in turn leading to WWIII.

Abstract

Since the beginning of the confrontation, a lot has been written about its root causes, the motivations of the main actors, and possible scenarios for the future. However, few have looked at what came to be called the ‘Ukraine crisis’ from the point of view of Russo-Ukrainian relations, and grasped the perspectives of various groups involved, as well as the discursive processes that have contributed to the developments in and interpretations of the conflict.

The paper is divided into 3 sections: The History, The Present, and The Future. Each of which talks and gives a detailed view about the Russian-Ukrainian dynamics and state affairs.

THE HISTORY

Timeline

Ukraine becomes independent (1st December 1991)

Not long after the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine voted for independence. Ukrainians were set on having a sovereign state.

Signing of the Budapest Memorandum (5th December 1994)

The Memorandum was signed for Security assurances in late 1994. It legally obligated Ukraine to transfer all nuclear weapons from the Cold War to the Russian Federation, leaving Ukraine a non-nuclear power. Before this Ukraine had physical possession of the world’s 3rd largest nuclear stockpile. Superpowers like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia signed the agreement.

Russia opposes Ukrainian NATO membership (3rd April 2008)

In early April of 2008, a NATO summit began with intense debate about extending a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Ukraine. In order to gain membership to NATO, a military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries dedicated to preserving peace and security in the North Atlantic area, countries must first have a MAP. Putin makes his opposition to Ukrainian membership known to NATO leaders, at one point allegedly telling President George W. Bush that Ukraine is “not even a real nation-state.” NATO does not offer Ukraine a MAP.

Russia seizes Crimea, creating international outrage (February to March 2014)

Russia seized Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula with a predominantly ethnic Russian population, in the aftermath of the Euromaidan protests. Russian troops occupied key sites on the peninsula, wearing military uniforms with removed Russian insignias. The annexation prompted international outrage and was condemned by the United Nations and the European Union.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy elected as President of Ukraine (1st April 2019)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, defeated the pro-Russia Petro Poroshenko in the presidential election. Zelensky’s party also won a majority of seats in the parliament.

Putin Demands Security Guarantees (December 2021)

In result of Zelensky winning the presidential elections against the pro-russian opposition Ukrainian, including Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin, Putin increased the number of troops near the ukrainian border. By the end of the month Russian troops had tripled and Putin had started issuing demands to NATO & the United States. Among these demands is that Ukraine never be admitted to NATO – a request rejected by the Biden administration.

Russia Recognized Breakaway Ukrainian Regions as Sovereign (21st February 2022)

In 2014, the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk broke away from Ukraine. Following the breakdown of relations with NATO and the West in late February, Putin recognized these territories as independent states and sent troops in to “keep the peace.”

Russia invades Ukraine, declaring war (24th February 2022)

A day Ukrainians will never forget and a war that could possibly lead to a greater war. Days after recognizing the breakaway territories, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion began in the eastern Ukrainian territory of Donbas. Zelenskyy declared martial law in Ukraine and officially broke diplomatic ties with Russia.

THE PRESENT

The Annexation Of Freedom In The First Week

25th February

– Putin described Ukrainian leadership as “drug-addicts and neo-Nazis

– Ukrainian men aged 18-60 were forbidden to leave the country

– Over 50,000 refugees crossed the polish border

26th February

– Kyiv goes into 36 hour curfew

– Further sanctions announced on Russian banks, including the central bank

– Germany promises to send Ukraine 1,000 new anti-tank weapons

27th February

– Russian attack on Kharkiv was repelled

– Putin put Russia’s nuclear weapons on alert

– EU backs arms shipments to Ukraine

28th February

– The Rouble falls to an all time low

– Over 500,000 crossed the Polish border

1st March

– Attack on Kharkiv’s Freedom Square

– Russia occupies Berdyansk & Melitopol

– The number of estimated civilian casualties were 536

2nd March

– Russia admits 498 soldiers were killed

– Kherson falls to Russia, becoming the first major city do so

– 875,000 estimated civilians had fled Ukraine

War Is Knocking On Europe’s Door

Is Russia truly the ONLY devil’s incarnation if its warnings were ignored and it was backed into a corner by the so-called ‘saviours’ of the world?

Vladimir Putin has launched what is likely to be Europe’s most intense conflict in a generation and possibly since WWII. Within seconds of declaring war on Ukraine, explosions rang near Kyiv’s main airport as well as in many other cities.

Vladimir Putin bears primary responsibility for this latest development, but Nato’s arrogant, tone‐deaf policy toward Russia over the past quarter‐century deserves a large share as well. Analysts committed to a US foreign policy of realism and restraint have warned for more than a quarter‐century that continuing to expand the most powerful military alliance in history toward another major power would not end well. The war in Ukraine provides definitive confirmation that it did not. George Kennan, the intellectual father of America’s containment policy during the cold war, perceptively warned about what the Senate’s ratification of Nato’s first round of expansion would set in motion. He said, “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else.” Moscow’s patience with Nato’s ever more intrusive behaviour was wearing thin since 2014. The last reasonably friendly warning from Russia that the alliance needed to back off came in March 2007, when Putin addressed the annual Munich security conference. “Nato has put its frontline forces on our borders,” Putin complained. Nato expansion “represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?” Similar to NATO, the Warsaw Pact was a military alliance treaty between the Soviet Union and the countries of Eastern Europe. When the dissolution of the Soviet Union took place in 1991, NATO had promised Russia that if it terminated the Warsaw Pact, they would not include countries of Eastern Europe in the defence treaty that were previously part of the Soviet Union. NATO didn’t keep its promise, it went on to include countries like Estonia, Poland, Romania and Latvia, which were a part of the Soviet Union under the Warsaw Pact. NATO recently recognized Ukraine as an aspiring member. If Ukraine becomes a part of NATO, not only will it develop closer ties with the United States, but the latter will also have access to the Russian border. Hence, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Ukraine’s closer ties to the West as aggression, resulting in him having initiated a ‘special military operation’ against Kyiv.

Once the war commenced Russia warned the world of the consequences they would face if they tried to help Ukraine in any military form. The once promised membership into NATO soon became a desperate dream for Ukraine as the Western leaders dealt the same card they have been dealing since years. Suddenly NATO felt involving themselves with Russia would prove to be disastrous for them as the message from Putin was clear: If the nation joins NATO, the United States and European countries will have to grapple directly with ongoing Russian-fueled conflicts. Russia could also impose other costs on Europe, such as withholding gas exports. And Germany and many other NATO nations prefer to choose their battles with Russia, given its proximity and Putin’s aggressive nature.The dynamics changed in a weeks time and Ukraine was left to fend for themselves. However soon after sanctions were imposed and the path has been rocky for the world since then.

The Relations Between The Nations Look Grim

Who’s ally are you?

The United States and Europe have avoided direct military conflict with Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine. But they are using a powerful tool to try to push back against Russia and create consequences for its aggressions: an unexpectedly fast and powerful set of financial sanctions meant to shock the country’s economy and hamstring its access to financial resources. The US and European allies have limited its ability to transact in foreign currencies such as dollars and euros, frozen the assets of multiple Russian banks, and cut off Russia’s banks from the SWIFT messaging system banks use to transmit information globally. Japan said it would join in freezing the assets of Russian leaders and some banks and freezing Russia’s foreign reserves in yen. Even Switzerland, a historically neutral country in conflict, has agreed to join sanctions efforts.

In turn, Russia has taken action to try to shore up its economy and finances. Its central bank doubled its interest rate in an attempt to stabilise the ruble after the currency sank against the dollar (currently doing better than the dollar). The country, which has been facing sanctions since its invasion of Crimea in 2014, has over $600 billion in foreign reserves, meaning money in other countries’ currencies and gold. It built up those reserves specifically to help fend off sanctions. These developments have major implications not only for Russia’s economy but potentially for the world’s.

A few countries like India and China have continuously abstained from voting against Russia in the UN and have continued friendly relations and trade with Russia. China and India have earned Russia’s loyalty and friendship for many years. In India’s case it would be foolish to go against Russia when its one nuclear neighbour, China, is waiting to expand and Russia is its only hope to act as a moderator. India and Russia have always had a strong friendship and trade-If jeopardised would leave India distraught. China has openly declared that it will help Russia to any extent and would take its side against the West. On the other hand India has remained neutral, keeping putin content but the west unhappy yet not enough to start a conflict.

Economic catastrophe for the world

The war’s reverberations sound most strongly in Europe. The invasion has upended the idea of a continent “whole, free, and at peace”.

Keeping aside geopolitical ramifications for a moment. The waves of tectonic economic instability unleashed by the Ukraine conflict have shocked and caught the global commentariat of politicians, central bankers, economists and investment analysts off guard. The world was already noticing inflation and the Russo-Ukrainian war has only acted as a catalyst.

Europe is a key destination for Russia’s energy exports. In 2021, Russia exported 49% of its crude oil and condensates and 74% of its natural gas to Europe.

Europe is Russia’s largest customer. Most of the Crude went to the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland while the majority of Russia’s natural gas went to Germany, Turkey, Italy, and France. Europe derives nearly 25% of its energy from natural gas and cancelling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would run between Russia and Germany, would affect its future gas imports. In retaliation, Russia has discussed stopping the flow of natural gas to Europe. Clearly, energy is a chief concern to Europe, one of the world’s most energy dependent regions. In response to the many sanctions put on Russia, Russia has banned exports of more than 200 products until the end of 2022, including telecoms, medical, vehicle, agricultural, electrical equipment and timber. In addition it is blocking interest payments to foreign investors who hold government bonds, and banning Russian firms from paying overseas shareholders. It has stopped foreign investors who hold billions of dollars worth of Russian stocks and bonds from selling them. Natural gas prices increased 20 percent after the war started, but are six times higher than they were at the start of 2021. High gas prices are feeding inflation, and Europeans are paying more for heating. The result is that households have less money to spend, and hopes for an economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic have decreased. Industries that use natural gas, like fertiliser makers, have to cut production. Farmers are paying more to run machinery and buy fertiliser. Germany’s economy is facing a start of recession. In January, U.S. consumer prices rose 7.5 percent from a year earlier, the biggest jump since 1982. In Europe, inflation increased to a record 5.8 percent compared with the same time a year earlier for the 19 countries that use the euro as money.

ASIA

In India, the edible oil market, which depends heavily on Russian and Ukrainian imports, has been hit hard, while the Bangladeshi economy is also reeling. Southeast Asian states, while not directly impacted, will also feel the indirect effects. Indians consume about 25 million tons of edible oil each year, more than half of which is imported, according to rating agency CRISIL. That makes it the largest importer of edible oils in the world — and much of that oil comes from the war zone. Over the last four months, about 85% of India’s sunflower oil was imported from Ukraine, 14% from Russia and the rest from Argentina, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, a vegetable oil industry body. In addition, wheat prices have spiked due to an extraordinary global demand over fears that the Russia-Ukraine war could adversely impact supplies of the grain. The two countries account for 25% of the international wheat trade.

THE FUTURE

A Change In The World Order & A Geopolitical Shift

Will it be a gradual shift in power or a bloodbath?

Going forward, it’s quite clear that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, will be a pariah state. It will be as isolated politically and economically as we can make it and will not return to anything that looks like pre-invasion [Russia]. This will be equally evident in the economic arena. Russia depends for revenues on gas and oil, and there’s going to be a major market shift away from the Western markets. It may mean that prices spike and, in the near term, Russia increases its revenues. The Chinese and others who are not abiding by the Western-imposed sanctions, could benefit from this by way of energy deals, trying to make up for the deals that Putin has lost elsewhere.

A really important thing to watch will be the countries that are sitting on the fence. So, as this persists and as evidence of atrocities continues, as the refugees continue to flow out of Ukraine, and who knows what lies ahead in terms of Russian actions — what’s the impact on China, most significantly, but also important states like India and Brazil, and so forth. There are important players here who haven’t yet actually declared their hand. Among those three, China, India and Brazil, China is probably most closely, at least rhetorically, aligned with Putin, so far.

Over the next decade, the most interesting Asian pivot will have far less to do with ties between the United States and its Asian partners, but with deeper integration between countries on both sides of the Eurasian continent. While both Asia and the Middle East have traditionally looked to the United States as their most significant economic and security partner, this dynamic is changing. As Asia’s rising powers continue to expand their global reach, a new East-West nexus is emerging — between Asia and the Middle East.

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo says the war in Ukraine will accelerate the geopolitical shift from West to East. The more popular it becomes to join NATO, the more insecure Europe will be. IF THE ENEMY of my enemy is my friend, is the enemy of my friend also my enemy? Not necessarily. Or so is China’s mindset when it comes to the raging Russo-Ukrainian war. On the one hand China is Russia’s strategic partner. On the other, China is the largest trading partner of Ukraine. Beijing therefore tries painstakingly to strike a balance in its responses to the war between two of its friends. It expresses understanding of Russia’s “legitimate concerns” over NATO’s expansion, while underlining that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected”. Such carefully planned out neutrality may not be what the warring parties really want, but it is acceptable to both. If China joins the West in condemning Russia, it will be much applauded in Washington and most European capitals. But it will lose Russia’s partnership. And it is only a matter of time before America takes on China again. The Biden administration’s policy towards my country is “extreme competition” that stops just short of war. No matter what said and done China has always openly voiced out its loyalty for Russia.

Conclusion

It can be concluded the hypothesis has been proven correct.

It is all about perspective and in turn good and bad is subjective. Much of the discussion by the end of this paper is centred on the question of whether Russia’s actions should be thought of as aggressive or defensive. Both of those views see the motivation as primarily geopolitical.

The Aggressive View

The aggressive or opportunistic view sees Russia as having seized upon instability in Ukraine to seize territory that it has long coveted. The ultimate goal, which has motivated and guided [Vladimir Putin] since he took over the presidency which he has pursued with remarkable consistency and persistence, is to recover most, if not all, key assets – political, economic and geostrategic – lost in the collapse of the Soviet state.

The Defensive View

The defensive view sees Russia, alarmed by the eastward expansion of the European Union and NATO, as reacting to the threat that Ukraine’s revolution would lead to the expansion of hostile European powers into territory that had traditionally belonged to Russia, and through which Russia has repeatedly been invaded: ‘The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The root of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West.

This debate between offensive and defensive, which echoes the debate between ‘traditional’ and ‘revisionist’ explanations of the Cold War, is based on an underlying agreement that the conflict is essentially about geopolitics – about whether Ukraine will be part of the East or West, about whether Russia will accept or reject.

History will show that Washington’s treatment of Russia in the decades following the demise of the Soviet Union was a policy blunder of epic proportions. It was entirely predictable that Nato expansion would ultimately lead to a tragic, perhaps violent, breach of relations with Moscow. Perceptive analysts warned of the likely consequences, but those warnings went unheeded. We are now paying the price for the US foreign policy establishment’s myopia and arrogance. The war has not only proven to be disastrous for Europe’s political economy but could also lead to a shift in the world order.

THE WAR OF POLITICS AND PROPAGANDA

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